Ryan Pyle Blog: 2010 Growth Predictions

Hello.

A few weeks back the Economist magazine came out with GDP growth predictions for 2010. China was right in there at 8.5% to 9% growth for 2010, many even consider that conservative at certain sectors of the Chinese economy seem over-heated, namely housing and the stock market. I wouldn't be at all surprised if China cracked double digit figures this year, but that would depend more on the recovery of the rich world.

But what interested me most about the list was who China's competitors are in the race for the title of fastest growing country - by GDP - in the world.

First on the list was Qatar which is set to grow at 24.5% this year. That's an unbelievable number, funded mainly on natural gas but still remarkable. I don't know much about Qatar, I've never been, but I know they are close to completing the largest natural gas processing plant in the world; which is also the largest man made structure in the world. Would be a great shoot no doubt, I love construction and infrastructure photography.

Second and third on the list are Turkmenistan (11% growth) and Azerbaijan (9% growth). I visited Turkmenistan once on a three day transit visa and I can honestly say that I've never been to a more crazy place. Everyone is dirt poor and there are golden statues everywhere of their former leader who was nicknamed Turkmenbashi, or the father of all Turkmen. Turkmenistan has had a government change, since I bused my way across the country in 2003, and it seems they are opening up and developing their massive natural gas reserves. China just signed a massive pipeline deal a few weeks back. Whether any of that money filters down in to education and healthcare is a different story, it's most likely bound for Switzerland. Azerbaijan on the other hand is much less of a pariah state but suffers from much of the same cronyism. I also traveled through Baku in 2003 and found the city to be absolutely lovely, fantastic people and some stunning old architecture; but the Soviet hangover is very much in the foreground and dodgy border officials, alcoholism and violent crime still haunt Baku. It's also great that they son o the former president took over in his death, I mean, who wouldn't want to control the country's massive oil and gas reserves.

China placed forth at a perky 9%. Almost nobody talks about Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan but all the media limelight is saved for China. In the recent month they've jailed a human rights activist and put to death a British citizen; but in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan that kind of stuff happens weekly. Bad bank loans are mostly likely going to start showing up on the balance sheets of Chinese banks in the coming months; being made to lend to dodgy people with no collateral must be an incredibly liberating feeling for a Chinese banking executive. Did someone say "State Induced Bubble"? I read something the other day that indicated that 40% of the money lent out by Chinese banks in 2009 ended up in the Stock Market and the Property Market. Sound investments, and is anyone surprised that the government has kept the tap running?

In fifth place is Uzbekistan (8% growth), in sixth is Congo-Brazzaville (7.8% growth), in seventh is Angola (7%), in eight place is Ethiopia (7% growth) and in ninth place is India (7% growth), and rounding off the top ten is newly healing Sri Lanka (6.5% growth).

I guess I am pretty surprised at how many dodgy countries are growing. I felt I was always part of the majority, believing that places like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan would never amount to much; and as the elite of their countries siphon off the spoils of their countries natural resources that is more and more likely to be true. To my knowledge India is the only true Democracy on the list. Sri Lanka was a complete surprise and Angola is the top ten's biggest oil producer. Of the entire list of top ten growth countries for 2010, one might say that China has the most balanced economy. Interesting list.

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Ryan Pyle
Photographer
ryan@ryanpyle.com
Website: www.ryanpyle.com
Archive: http://archive.ryanpyle.com
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Ryan Pyle Blog: BBC.com Wine in China

Hello.

I've put together a few stories about Wine in China over the last few years and today the BBC ran a small series of the work. See below.

The Chinese can drink with the best of them, a fact to which western beer producers have known for decades. But apart from local "rice wines" and beer, a taste for fine wine is building slowly, and both customers and investors are answering the call. As the New York Times stated back in 2008, China could, within a decade, become the "next Chile"; a destination for affordable and quality wine production. As wages rise and more and more Chinese look to acquire the fixings of the the upper class and those associated with a luxurious lifestyle, they will consume finer wines, many of which could be home grown in the future. While much of the landscape of wine growing in China is government run through State Owned Enterprises, there has been an opening for foreign investors and joint ventures. The landscape is littered by privately owned and funded wineries; and among them one of the industry leaders is the Hong Kong based Grace Vineyards who run and operate a handful of vineyards in China; but whose largest operation is the one I visited in Shanxi province.

My production of this work was a truely remarkable experience. The grape vineyards in Shanxi were well maintained and well tended to, the harvasting season was exciting and full of rich visual moments. I think what's important about Grace Vineyards is that they've full embraced the local community, which was obviously a stated goal by the government when considering this type of foreign investment in the region. The Vineyard works with local farmers for maintaining and harvesting, the grape pickers, and women sorted grapes are all hired from nearby villages and towns. It's not only providing an income and training for those involved but it's laying the foundations for future generations of wine development in the region. I wonder what Italian red wine tasted like after only the fifth year in production? That's where much of China is today in production.

In Shanghai there is a real focus on consumption and education. And this is where foreign brands dominate, as schools and importers are setting up shop in an effort to educate the upper reaches of society on the wines of the world. Will China's wine drinking masses follow suit? That's anyone's guess. Is there room for the wine industry to grow? Absolutely, but much of the initial growth is because the industry has started from scratch. Sustainable development will only come in time. Many are watching to see if this industry takes shape to become a global player. Only time will tell. Ryan Pyle - Shanghai, China.

Click here for the BBC LINK.

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Ryan Pyle
Photographer
ryan@ryanpyle.com
Website: www.ryanpyle.com
Archive: http://archive.ryanpyle.com
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